The USD firms, oil prices slip, equity markets are down, and US yields rise amid tariff chaos. The USD initially slipped in Asian trading after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs, reflecting headline-driven policy uncertainty and softer near-term inflation expectations. However, the dollar reversed and firmed in early European trade as investors shifted focus to relative rate dynamics, safe-haven flows, and lingering geopolitical risks tied to U.S.–Iran tensions. The choppy price action underscores that tariff uncertainty is far from resolved, with markets grappling with what policy steps come next and how they feed into growth, inflation, and fiscal risks. Global equities slipped as renewed trade uncertainty rattled sentiment, with US futures lower and European stocks volatile following the Supreme Court’s rejection of Trump’s emergency tariffs and his proposal of a new 15% global levy. The policy confusion has reinforced concerns about the unpredictability of US trade strategy, adding to pressure on American equities, which have already underperformed global peers this year. While parts of Asia’s tech sector showed resilience, overall risk appetite remains fragile amid geopolitical tensions and key upcoming market catalysts. Oil prices edged lower while gold rallied and Bitcoin slipped back below $67,000 as investors adopted a more defensive stance amid renewed trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The divergence highlights a broader risk-off tone, with capital rotating out of growth-sensitive assets and into traditional safe havens. Today 's economic calendar is light, so focus will be on tariff updates and Fed comments to provide intraday direction.
In the news. The EU says it will accept no increase in US tariffs. Mexico hit by wave of violence after security forces kill cartel leader. Trump's new flat-rate tariff is a boost for China and Brazil. Novo Nordisk shares drop 10% after poor weight loss trial results. Iran agreed secret shoulder-fired missile deal with Russia. Satellite images reveal surge in US fighter jets in the Middle East. Tehran is ready for nuclear concessions in US meets demands, Iranian official says. BoJ may raise rates in March if yen resumes slide, says ex-policymaker. Canada looks to USMCA review after Trump's tariffs were struck down. Train and Air Travel disrupted with New York City bracing for Blizzard.
In currency markets. The Mexican peso, Swedish krona and Norwegian krone have weakened against the U.S. dollar in recent trading as the greenback trimmed earlier losses. The move reflects a cautious risk tone, with cyclical and commodity-linked currencies underperforming as investors rotate back into the USD. CNY is up 0.1%, while Asian currencies are flat against the USD. Trading currencies are mixed, with KWD, MXN, NOK & SEK weakening 0.4%, NZD & CZK down 0.1%, NZD, CHF & JPY flat, while DKK, PLN & ZAR firmed 0.1% against the USD.
In commodity markets. Oil prices fell 0.6%. Natural Gas prices strengthened 2.2%. Gold prices advanced 1.8%. Silver prices rallied 4.8%. Coffee prices tumbled 1.4%, while Wheat & Soybean prices weakened 0.8%.
CAD opened softer, extending last week’s softer tone as investors continue to digest the U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and broader U.S. dollar strength. While the decision is seen as having limited direct impact on Canada — given many exports were already exempt — softer inflation, mixed retail sales data and slightly lower oil prices have kept the loonie under pressure. With no major domestic releases until Friday’s GDP report, CAD is likely to track broader USD moves and shifts in risk sentiment in the interim.
EURCAD edges higher in early trading as the euro stays supported amid ongoing US trade-policy uncertainty, while the Canadian dollar begins the week on a softer footing. With limited near-term Canadian data and oil prices slightly weaker, the cross is being guided mainly by broader risk sentiment and relative currency flows.
EUR remains supported above 1.1800 after Germany’s IFO survey showed a modest improvement in business sentiment, though the data failed to provide fresh upside momentum. The pair continues to find support from persistent US Dollar weakness as renewed trade uncertainty and expectations for additional Fed rate cuts weigh on the greenback. Broader uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is keeping the dollar on the defensive and helping the euro hold its ground.
GBPEUR edges higher in early trading, with sterling modestly outperforming as recent stronger-than-expected UK retail sales and PMI data lend support. While both currencies have benefited from broad US dollar softness following the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, the UK's relative resilience in data is helping the pound gain ground against the euro ahead of Germany’s IFO survey.
GBP firms, but remains capped near the 1.3500 level as the US dollar rebounds amid escalating tariff uncertainty and renewed demand for the greenback. Meanwhile, softer UK labour market data — including rising unemployment and cooling wage growth — reinforces expectations of a March BoE rate cut, potentially limiting sterling’s upside ahead of upcoming UK CPI and key US inflation releases.
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