The USD steadies, oil prices advance, while equity markets and US treasuries are mixed after Iran-US peace talks were delayed. The U.S. dollar remains supported after reports that planned U.S.-Iran peace talks have been delayed, dampening risk appetite and boosting demand for safe-haven assets. Lingering geopolitical uncertainty has tempered optimism surrounding the recent ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates later this year continue to underpin broad-based dollar strength. Global equity markets are mixed as investors adopt a cautious stance following reports that planned U.S.-Iran peace talks have been delayed, raising questions about the path toward a lasting agreement. With U.S. markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, European shares are little changed while Asian equities have pulled back from record highs. Despite the softer tone, broader market sentiment remains supported by easing geopolitical tensions and continued optimism surrounding artificial intelligence-driven growth. Elsewhere, oil prices advance as delays to U.S.-Iran peace talks and renewed regional tensions raise concerns about the path toward a lasting agreement, prompting a modest rebound in crude prices. Gold and Bitcoin prices retreat as a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates weigh on demand for alternative assets. With the US holiday, markets are expected to be somewhat sidelined, with focus on US-Iran peace talks updates and CAD Retail Sales to help drive intraday direction.
News Headlines. Iran postponed US talks due to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, diplomats say. SpaceX plots $20bn bond deal after record IPO. Burnham storms to by-election victory in challenge to Starmer. The EU delays trade confrontation with China. VP Vance lashes out at Israeli government over Iran deal criticism. SpaceX warns EU satellite plan risks undermining connectivity in Ukraine. Gulf airlines get back to business as flights near pre-war levels. Record heat wave sears France, testing farms and power grids. US stocks draw record weekly inflows as investors pile into tech.
In currency markets. Against the USD, the Japanese yen has fallen to a 40-year low as widening interest-rate differentials and the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook continue to support the greenback. The yen's weakness has persisted despite the Bank of Japan's recent rate hike, keeping markets alert to the risk of intervention from Japanese authorities.
In commodity markets. Oil +0.46% | Nat Gas -0.65% | Gold -1.75% | Silver -2.01% | Copper -0.49% | Palladium -1.73% | Coffee -2.24% | Cocoa +0.40% | Soybeans +0.07%
CAD continues to hold near 14-month lows against the U.S. dollar as widening Canada-U.S. yield spreads, weaker oil prices, and trade uncertainty surrounding the future of the USMCA weigh on sentiment. The loonie remains under pressure after the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy outlook boosted demand for the greenback and pushed USD/CAD to its highest levels since April 2025. Attention now turns to Friday's Canadian retail sales report, where growth is expected to slow from the previous month, providing a fresh gauge of domestic economic momentum.
EURCAD is little changed near 1.62, holding close to its highest level in nearly five months as the euro continues to benefit from the ECB's hawkish policy stance. The pair remains supported by ongoing weakness in the Canadian dollar, with softer oil prices, widening yield spreads, and trade uncertainty weighing on the loonie. Investors are now focused on Canada's retail sales report for fresh clues on the strength of the domestic economy.
EUR is little changed near 1.1450 as the euro finds modest support from a pullback in the U.S. dollar following its post-Fed rally. The single currency also continues to benefit from the ECB's hawkish policy stance and improving risk sentiment tied to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates later this year continue to limit the pair's upside momentum.
GBPEUR gains toward 1.1550 as stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data boosts confidence in the domestic economy and supports the pound. Sterling also remains underpinned by the Bank of England's decision to keep rates unchanged while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation. However, gains are being tempered by concerns over rising government borrowing and by the ECB's continued tightening bias supporting the euro.
GBP rebounds above 1.3200 as stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data provides support for the pound. However, gains remain limited as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates continue to underpin the U.S. dollar. Sterling also faces headwinds from concerns over the UK's growth outlook and rising political uncertainty. Investors are closely monitoring the political landscape amid speculation over potential Labour Party leadership challenges and their implications for fiscal policy.
Payment Services are provided by Equals Connect Limited, registered in England and Wales (registered no. 07131446). Registered Office: Vintners’ Place, 68 Upper Thames St, London, EC4V 3BJ. Equals Connect Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide payment services (FRN: 671508).
