The USD inches higher, oil prices slip, equity markets are up, and US yields rise ahead of Warsh's remarks. The USD holds firm near one-week highs and is on track for a modest weekly gain, supported by persistent U.S. inflation and expectations that the Fed could still raise rates before year-end. Focus is firmly on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech today, with markets looking for guidance on the rate outlook and the Fed’s response to recent Treasury intervention in bond markets. Global equity markets are mostly higher, with European shares advancing and U.S. futures holding near recent highs as Nvidia’s strong outlook continues to support technology sentiment. Gains remain measured, however, as investors avoid taking large positions ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s closely watched Jackson Hole speech today. Elsewhere, oil and gold prices slip modestly, while Bitcoin weakens below $80,000 as cautious sentiment prevails ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech today. Today’s economic calendar includes Canadian Q2 GDP, U.S. Chicago PMI, the Nonfarm Payrolls annual benchmark revision, final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
News headlines. Iran says return to diplomacy 'isn't impossible' - but all Mideast wars must end to reopen Hormuz. Russian forces intensify attacks in Donetsk as Ukraine lauds fresh EU push to unlock frozen assets. Trump ratchets up rhetoric against Beijing as US-China officials meet for Xi's Washington visit. Trump orders Lake Ontario to be renamed 'Lake America' in slight to Canada. China suspends Himalaya flood rescue efforts as lake overflows. US stocks and bonds drift with focus on Jackson Hole. Canada can weather latest US tariffs, economists tell Carney's finance chief. Quebec election starts amid tensions with the US and separatists ahead in polls.
In currency markets. Against the USD, G10 currencies are mixed in subdued trading ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with the dollar holding close to one-week highs. The AUD is the standout performer as Australian rate-hike expectations build, while the JPY remains under pressure despite firmer Tokyo inflation and growing expectations for a BoJ hike.
In commodity markets. WTI -0.47% | Nat Gas -0.45% | Gold -0.14% | Silver +1.54% | Copper +0.50% | Palladium +4.71% | Coffee +0.24% | Cocoa +4.23% | Soybeans +0.61% | Wheat +0.62%
CAD holds steady in early trading after recovering from this week’s lows, supported by Canada’s surprise C$8.84 billion current-account surplus and signs of resilience in the domestic economy. Escalating Canada-U.S. trade tensions remain a significant headwind, with new tariffs raising concerns over exports, investment and business confidence. The loonie’s resilience suggests markets are not yet pricing in a worst-case trade outcome, leaving scope for a recovery should tensions ease. Attention now turns to today’s Canadian GDP report, expected to show annualized growth of 3.4% in the second quarter.
EURCAD slips in early trading as the Canadian dollar holds steady following yesterday’s surprise current-account surplus, while the euro remains under pressure below 1.1650 amid renewed USD strength. Canada-U.S. trade tensions continue to limit CAD gains, while expectations for further ECB tightening provide some underlying support to the cross.
EUR edges below 1.1650 as persistent U.S. inflation and increasingly hawkish comments from Fed officials support the USD. The euro remains underpinned by expectations for further ECB tightening, but has struggled to capitalize on improving German economic data. Attention is firmly on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech today for further guidance on the U.S. rate outlook.
GBPEUR holds steady, with both currencies lacking a clear relative catalyst as GBP contends with softer BoE rate expectations while the euro benefits from improving German economic data and expectations for further ECB tightening. The cross remains rangebound, with markets focused primarily on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech today.
GBP holds steady around 1.3590 following its recent decline, with reduced expectations for a BoE rate hike limiting support for the currency. The UK economy has remained relatively resilient, although softer business sentiment and signs of cooling activity have encouraged markets to scale back tightening expectations. Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech today, with GBP likely to remain rangebound ahead of the address.
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